北京时候23日晚10点，好意思联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔人人央行年会上重磅发声。
会议上，鲍威尔开释了迄今为止最为明确的降息信号，他示意： 政策调动的时机依然到来。降息时机和节拍将取决于后续数据、出息变化和风险均衡。
他觉得，目下的政策利率水平为好意思联储提供了豪阔的空间来搪塞可能濒临的任何风险，包括劳能源商场气象进一步恶化的风险。“通胀的上行风险依然磨叽，办事的下行风险则有所增多。好意思联储关注双重职责各自所濒临的风险。”
以下为言语全文（中英对照）：
Four and a half years after COVID-19's arrival， the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading. Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated， and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed. Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market， avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored. While the task is not complete， we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.
在新冠病毒到来四年半后，与疫情联系的最严重的经济误解正在消退。通货推广已彰着下落。劳能源商场不再过热，现在的气象也不如疫情前那么紧俏。供给规矩依然正常化。咱们两项任务的风险均衡依然发生了变化。咱们的谋略是复原价钱安静的同期保捏强盛的劳能源商场，幸免失业率急剧上升，这是通胀预期莫得充分锚定经常时会出现的早期去通胀特征。咱们依然朝着这个谋略获取了很猛进展。固然任务尚未完成，但咱们依然朝着这一着力获取了很猛进展。
Today， I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy. I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived， exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation， and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low.
今天，我将开端筹算现时的经济场面和货币政策的异日旅途。然后，我将转向对疫情以来经济事件的筹算，探讨为什么通货推广上升到一代东说念主以来的最高水平，以及为什么通胀率下落如斯之多，而失业率却保捏在低位。
Near-Term Outlook for Policy 近期政策瞻望Let's begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy.
让咱们从现时的场面和近期政策出息开动。
For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) primary focus has been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so. Prior to this episode， most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period. Inflation brought substantial hardship， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing， and transportation. High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today.
在昔日三年的大部分时候里，通胀率远高于咱们 2% 的谋略，劳能源商场气象极其弥留。联邦公开商场委员会 (FOMC) 的主要重心是裁汰通胀率，这是理所天然的。在此之前，现在大多数好意思国东说念主还莫得经历过恒久高通胀的不幸。通胀带来了广阔的痛苦，尤其是对于那些最无力承担食物、住房和交通等基本生存必需品腾贵老本的东说念主来说。高通胀激勉的压力和不公说念感于今仍然存在。
Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored. Inflation is now much closer to our objective， with prices having risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months (figure 1) . After a pause earlier this year， progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed. My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent.
咱们的规矩性货币政策有助于复原总供需均衡，缓解通胀压力，并确保通胀预期保捏淡雅锚定。通货推广现在更接近咱们的谋略，物价在昔日12个月中高潮了2.5%（图1）。继岁首有所凝滞之后，咱们朝着2%的谋略又获取了进展。我越来越有信心，通胀率正沿着可捏续的说念路回到2%。
Turning to employment， in the years just prior to the pandemic， we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions: low unemployment， high participation， historically low racial employment gaps， and， with inflation low and stable， healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes.
谈到办事，在疫情爆发前的几年里，咱们看到了恒久强盛的劳能源商场气象给社会带来的首要利益：低失业率、高参与率、历史性的低种族办事差距，以及通货推广率低而安静、施行工资增长健康且越来越汇集在低收入东说念主群中。
Today， the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent—still low by historical standards， but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023 (figure 2). Most of that increase has come over the past six months. So far， rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs， as is typically the case in an economic downturn. Rather， the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring. Even so， the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable. Job gains remain solid but have slowed this year. Job vacancies have fallen， and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range. The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 2019. Nominal wage gains have moderated. All told， labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent. It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.
如今，劳能源商场已从之前的过热状态大幅降温。失业率在一年多前开动上升，目下为4.3%，以历史圭臬估量仍然较低，但比2023岁首的水平普及快要整整一个百分点（图2）。其中大部分上升是在昔日六个月中完好意思的。到目下为止，失业率上升并不是裁人增多的着力，而裁人是经济零落时间的典型情况。相背，这一增长主要反应了工东说念主供给的大幅增多以及之前荒诞的招聘速率有所放缓。即便如斯，劳能源商场气象的降温是无须置疑的。办事增长保捏矜重，但本年有所放缓。职位空白下落，职位空白与失业的比率已回到疫情前的水平。招聘率和下野率现在低于 2018年和2019年的水平。风光工资增长有所放缓。一言以蔽之，现在的劳能源商场气象不如2019年疫情之前那么弥留，那一年的通胀率低于2%。劳能源商场似乎不太可能在短期内成为通胀压力上升的根源。咱们不寻求或宽容劳能源商场气象进一步降温。
Overall， the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement， we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
总体而言，经济连接以矜重的速率增长。但通货推广和劳能源商场数据骄气，情况正在赓续变化。通胀的上行风险依然磨叽。办事的下行风险也有所增多。正如咱们在上一次FOMC中强调的那样，咱们关注双重负务中的两方面风险。
The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear， and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks.
现在是政策调动的时候了。前进的场地是明确的，降息的时机和方法将取决于行将到来的数据、赓续变化的出息以及风险的均衡。
We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint， there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face， including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.
咱们将尽一切努力复古强盛的劳能源商场，同期在价钱安静方面起劲进一步进展。跟着政策管制的适当拘谨，咱们有充分的原理觉得，经济将回到2%的通胀率，同期保捏强盛的劳能源商场。咱们目下的政策利率水平为咱们提供了豪阔的空间来搪塞可能濒临的任何风险，包括劳能源商场气象不受宽容的进一步疲软的风险。
The Rise and Fall of Inflation 通胀的起落Let's now turn to the questions of why inflation rose， and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low. There is a growing body of research on these questions， and this is a good time for this discussion. It is， of course， too soon to make definitive assessments. This period will be analyzed and debated long after we are gone.
现在让咱们来谈谈为什么通货推广会上升，为什么在失业率保捏低位的情况下通货推广却大幅下落。对于这些问题的磋议越来越多，现在是筹算的好时机。天然，现在作念出明确的评估还为时过早。在咱们离开后很长一段时候，东说念主们仍将对这段时间进行分析和申辩。
The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world. It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks. As so often happens in times of crisis， Americans adapted and innovated. Governments responded with extraordinary force， especially in the U.S. Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act. At the Fed， we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help stave off an economic depression.
新冠疫情的爆发飞快导致人人经济停摆。这是一个充满不敬佩性和严重下行风险的时间。正如危急时间往往发生的那样，好意思国东说念主顺应并篡改。列国政府作念出了越过的回复，尤其是好意思国国会一致通过了《温雅法案》。在好意思联储，咱们以前所未有的程度摆布咱们的职权来安静金融体系并匡助幸免经济荒凉。
After a historically deep but brief recession， in mid-2020 the economy began to grow again. As the risks of a severe， extended downturn receded， and as the economy reopened， we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the Global Financial Crisis.
在经历了历史上令东说念主深远但良晌的零落之后，2020年年中，经济再次开动增长。跟着严重偏向下行的风险消退，以及经济从头通达，咱们依然濒临着风险，可能会再次经历像人人金融危急之后那样安静复苏的不幸。
Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021. Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021. The ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery. Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services. But pent-up demand， stimulative policies， pandemic changes in work and leisure practices， and the additional savings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods.
国会在 2020 年底和 2021 岁首提供了多量稀奇的财政复古。2021 年上半年，支拨强盛复苏。捏续的疫情影响了复苏的模式。对新冠疫情的捏续担忧牵扯了面对面服务的支拨。但被压抑的需求、刺激政策、疫情导致的劳动和失业民俗的变化，以及与服务支拨受限联系的稀奇储蓄，齐促使消耗者在商品上的支拨出现历史性激增。
The pandemic also wreaked havoc on supply conditions. Eight million people left the workforce at its onset， and the size of the labor force was still 4 million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021. The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023 (figure 3). Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers， disrupted international trade linkages， and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand (figure 4). Clearly， this was nothing like the slow recovery after the Global Financial Crisis.
疫情还对供给端变成了严重禁锢。疫情开动时有 800 万东说念主离开了劳能源商场，劳能源数目仍比 2021 岁首疫情前的水平低 400 万东说念主。劳能源直到2023年年中才复原到疫情前的趋势（图3）。 工东说念主流失、外洋生意筹谋中断以及需求水平以及组成的结构性变化等身分使供应链堕入逆境（图4）。昭着，这与人人金融危急后的安静复苏实足不同。
Enter inflation. After running below target through 2020， inflation spiked in March and April 2021. The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad based， with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply， such as motor vehicles. My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and， thus， that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response—in short， that the inflation would be transitory. Standard thinking has long been that， as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored， it can be appropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation.
通货推广开动流露。在 2020 年全年低于谋略水平后，通货推广在 2021 年 3 月和 4 月飙升。开端的通货推广爆发是汇集的，而不是泛泛的，汽车等枯竭商品的价钱大幅高潮。我和我的共事一开动就判断，这些与疫情联系的身分不会捏续，因此，通货推广的一忽儿上升很可能很快就会昔日，而不需要货币政策搪塞——简而言之，通货推广将是暂时的。恒久以来的圭臬想维是，只消通胀预期保捏淡雅安静，央行就不错忽略通胀的暂时上升。
The good ship Transitory was a crowded one， with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly， that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course， and that demand would rotate back from goods to services， bringing inflation down.
“暂时性”这艘好船挤满了东说念主，炒金大多数主流分析师和暴露经济体央行行长齐复古这一不雅点。他们广大预期供应气象将飞快改善，需求的快速复苏将顺从其好意思，需求将从商品转向服务，从而裁汰通胀率。
For a time， the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis. Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April to September 2021， although progress came slower than expected (figure 5). The case began to weaken around midyear， as was reflected in our communications. Beginning in October， the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.9 Inflation rose and broadened out from goods into services. It became clear that the high inflation was not transitory， and that it would require a strong policy response if inflation expectations were to remain well anchored. We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November. Financial conditions began to tighten. After phasing out our asset purchases， we lifted off in March 2022.
一段时候内，数据与暂时性假定相一致。2021 年 4 月至 9 月，中枢通胀的月度读数每月齐不才降，尽管进展慢于预期（图 5）。正如咱们的疏通所反应的那样，这种情况在年中傍边开动磨叽。从 10 月开动，数据变得与暂时性假定以火去蛾中。9 通胀上升，并从商品扩展到服务。很彰着，高通胀不是暂时的，如果要保捏通胀预期的淡雅安静，就需要强有劲的政策搪塞。咱们果断到了这少许，并从 11 月开动滚动。金融气象开动收紧。在冉冉取消钞票购买后，咱们于 2022 年 3 月开动加息。
By early 2022， headline inflation exceeded 6 percent， with core inflation above 5 percent. New supply shocks appeared. Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices. The improvements in supply conditions and rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected， in part due to further COVID waves in the U.S.
到2022岁首，总体通胀超过6%，中枢通胀超过5%。新的供给冲击出现。俄乌冲破导致能源和巨额商品价钱大幅高潮。供给气象的改善和需求从商品转向服务的时候比预期的要长得多，部分原因是好意思国新一轮的新冠海潮。
High rates of inflation were a global phenomenon， reflecting common experiences: rapid increases in the demand for goods， strained supply chains， tight labor markets， and sharp hikes in commodity prices.12 The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1970s. Back then， high inflation became entrenched—an outcome we were utterly committed to avoiding.
高通胀率是一种人人气候，反应了共同的经历：商品需求飞快增多、供应链弥留、劳能源商场弥留以及巨额商品价钱大幅高潮。人人通胀的本色不同于上世纪70年代以来的任何时间。当时，高通胀依然树大根深——这是咱们尽全力幸免的着力。
By mid-2022， the labor market was extremely tight， with employment increasing by over 6-1/2 million from the middle of 2021. This increase in labor demand was met， in part， by workers rejoining the labor force as health concerns began to fade. But labor supply remained constrained， and， in the summer of 2022， labor force participation remained well below pre-pandemic levels. There were nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed persons from March 2022 through the end of the year， signaling a severe labor shortage (figure 6).Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022.
2022年年中，劳能源商场颠倒弥留，办事东说念主数比2021年年中增多了650万以上。劳能源需求的增多在一定程度上是通过工东说念主从头加入劳能源商场来完好意思的，因为东说念主们对健康的担忧开动消退。但劳能源供给仍然受到规矩，2022年夏天的劳能源参与率仍远低于疫情前的水平。从2022年3月到年底，职位空白数险些是失业东说念主数的两倍，标明劳能源严重枯竭（图6）。通胀在2022年6月达到7.1%的峰值。
At this podium two years ago， I discussed the possibility that addressing inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth. Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession and a lengthy period of high unemployment. I expressed our unconditional commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the job is done.
两年前，我曾在这个讲台上筹算过，治理通货推广问题可能会带来失业率上升和经济增长放缓等一些不幸。有东说念主觉得，收敛通货推广需要经济零落和恒久的高失业率。我抒发了咱们无条件的本旨，即全面复原价钱安静，并坚捏下去，直到任务完成。
The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities， and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability. We raised our policy rate by 425 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023. We have held our policy rate at its current restrictive level since July 2023 (figure 7).
FOMC在实施背负方面莫得退避，咱们的算作有劲地标明了咱们对复原价钱安静的决心。咱们在2022年将政策利率上调了425bp，并在2023年再次上调 100bp。自2023年7月以来，咱们一直将政策利率看守在目下的规矩性水平（图7）。
The summer of 2022 proved to be the peak of inflation. The 4-1/2 percentage point decline in inflation from its peak two years ago has occurred in a context of low unemployment—a welcome and historically unusual result.
通胀在2022 年夏令达到峰值。在低失业率的布景下，通胀从两年前的峰值下落了4.5%，这是一个可喜且历史萧瑟的着力。
How did inflation fall without a sharp rise in unemployment above its estimated natural rate?
何如达到通胀下落而失业率莫得急剧上升到超过想到的天然失业率的？
Pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand， as well as severe shocks to energy and commodity markets， were important drivers of high inflation， and their reversal has been a key part of the story of its decline. The unwinding of these factors took much longer than expected but ultimately played a large role in the subsequent disinflation. Our restrictive monetary policy contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand， which combined with improvements in aggregate supply to reduce inflationary pressures while allowing growth to continue at a healthy pace. As labor demand also moderated， the historically high level of vacancies relative to unemployment has normalized primarily through a decline in vacancies， without sizable and disruptive layoffs， bringing the labor market to a state where it is no longer a source of inflationary pressures.
疫情联系的供需误解以及对能源和巨额商品商场的严重冲击，是高通胀的热切驱开赴分，而它们的逆转是通胀下落的迤逦部分。这些身分的摒除破耗的时候比预期要长得多，但最终在随后的去通胀中领会了热切作用。规矩性货币政策导致总需求放缓，这与总供给的改善相联结，减轻了通胀压力，同期连接保捏良性增长。跟着劳能源需求也有所放缓，职位空白率/失业率依然从历史高位复原正常，主淌若通过职位空白的下落，而非大范围和禁锢性的裁人，使得劳能源商场不再是通胀压力的来源。
A word on the critical importance of inflation expectations. Standard economic models have long reflected the view that inflation will return to its objective when product and labor markets are balanced—without the need for economic slack—so long as inflation expectations are anchored at our objective. That's what the models said， but the stability of longer-run inflation expectations since the 2000s had not been tested by a persistent burst of high inflation. It was far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold. Concerns over de-anchoring contributed to the view that disinflation would require slack in the economy and specifically in the labor market. An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations， reinforced by vigorous central bank actions， can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack.
对于通胀预期的热切性。恒久以来，圭臬经济模子一直反应出这样一种不雅点，即只消通胀预期锚定在咱们的谋略上，住持具和劳能源商场达到均衡时，通胀就会回到其谋略，而不会带来经济轻松。模子是这样说的，但自2000年代以来恒久通胀预期的安静性并莫得招揽过捏续高通胀的教师。通胀能否捏续锚定还远不可得以保险。对脱锚的担忧促成了一种不雅点，即去通胀将需要经济（尤其是劳能源商场）的轻松。从最近的履历中得出的一个热切论断是，锚定的通胀预期，加上央行的有劲算作，不错促进去通胀，经济轻松并不是必须的。
This narrative attributes much of the increase in inflation to an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply. While researchers differ in their approaches and， to some extent， in their conclusions， a consensus seems to be emerging， which I see as attributing most of the rise in inflation to this collision.All told， the healing from pandemic distortions， our efforts to moderate aggregate demand， and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2 percent objective.
这种说法将通胀上升主要悔过于（经济）过热以及暂时误解的需求与受限的供给之间的越过碰撞。尽管磋议东说念主员在法子上各不一样，在某种程度上他们的论断上也各不一样，但似乎正在形成一种共鸣，在我看来即是通胀上升的大部分原因应悔过于这场碰撞。一言以蔽之，咱们从疫情的误解中复原了过来，咱们为庸碌总需求所作念的努力联结对预期的锚定，共同使通胀走上了一条日益完好意思2%谋略的可捏续说念路。
Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations， which reflect the public's confidence that the central bank will bring about 2 percent inflation over time. That confidence has been built over decades and reinforced by our actions.
独一在锚定通胀预期的情况下才有可能在保捏劳能源商场强盛的同期完好意思去通胀，这反应了公众有信心央行将渐渐达到2%傍边的通胀谋略。这种信心是昔日几十年来缔造起来的，而且通过咱们的算作得以加强。
That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may vary.
这是我对事件的评估。可能因东说念主而异。
Conclusion 论断Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other， and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period. Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making appropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years. As we begin this process later this year， we will be open to criticism and new ideas， while preserving the strengths of our framework. The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humility and a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and applying them flexibly to our current challenges.
终末，我想强调的是，事实阐述，疫情经济与其他任何经济齐不同，从这一特殊时间中咱们仍有好多东西需要学习。咱们的《恒久谋略和货币政策策略声明》强调，咱们致力于每五年通过一次全面的公开审查来审查咱们的原则并作念出适当调动。当咱们在本年晚些时候开动这一程度时，咱们将对品评和新主见捏通达气派，同期保捏咱们框架的上风。咱们学问的局限性——在疫情时间可想而知——要求咱们保捏暖热和质疑精神，专注于从昔日吸取警告并天真地将其应用于咱们现时的挑战。
注：鲍威尔言语稿原文详见好意思联储官网，华尔街见闻略有删省。
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